A.I., Crypto & Tech Stocks

Millions of American workers may need to reinvent their careers over the next decade as artificial intelligence and automation accelerate. A McKinsey Global Institute report estimates that roughly 11 million people—about 6.5% of the current U.S. labor force—could be forced to switch to entirely different occupations by 2035.

McKinsey projects that automation will reduce demand for about 36 million jobs by 2035. At the same time, expansion in AI-related fields and the broader economy is expected to create demand for roughly 40 million positions. The result: the United States is likely to have more jobs available in 2035 than it does today, even as the workforce shrinks due to an aging population.

Of the 36 million workers whose roles face automation pressure, about 25 million should be able to remain in their current occupations because growth in their industries will offset the losses. The remaining 11 million will need to change careers completely. “The next decade’s challenge is mobility, not scarcity,” the researchers wrote.

The report describes this shift as potentially “the largest and most sustained workforce transformation in U.S. history.” While social media often paints a bleak picture of AI destroying jobs, McKinsey argues the bigger issue will be helping workers move into new roles rather than a net shortage of employment.

Even without the full effects of AI, the U.S. job market is already undergoing major change. Baby Boomers are retiring in large numbers, net immigration has slowed, and external shocks continue to ripple through the economy.

For the past two years the market has operated in a “low-hire, low-fire” environment—limited opportunities for most workers and little turnover. That pattern was reinforced by the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, also released Tuesday.

Job openings fell to a five-month low at the end of August. The rate of voluntary quits, a key measure of worker confidence, stayed near a six-year low. Layoffs declined for the second consecutive month. Job growth last year ranked among the weakest on record. Gains have improved this year to an average of about 80,000 jobs per month, but that pace remains well below historical norms.

“Sluggish hiring means that workers feel stuck,” said Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor. “And that means that frustration and anxiety continue to build without a healthy outlet for it.”

Worker unease is showing up clearly in confidence surveys. Glassdoor’s Employee Confidence Index dropped to a new record low in September—the third such low this year—as employees voiced growing worries about job security, economic uncertainty, and the rise of AI.

Broader consumer confidence also deteriorated sharply. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9, its lowest level in 12 years. Higher gasoline prices and uncertainty tied to the conflict in Iran and global trade weighed heavily on sentiment. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, which places greater emphasis on household finances and inflation, also declined, reaching its second-lowest reading on record.

“Consumers were more downbeat about labor market conditions in September, as the low hiring rate weighed on perceptions of job availability,” noted Grace Zwemmer, U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. She added that the labor market remains roughly in balance, with slow labor-force growth matching weaker payroll gains—though conditions remain difficult for those who are unemployed.

Economists will get a clearer picture of current hiring trends when the official September jobs report is released Friday. Consensus forecasts expect the economy added about 95,000 jobs, down from 162,000 in August, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%.

Together, the McKinsey findings and the latest economic data paint a picture of a labor market already strained by low mobility and eroding confidence—one that will face even greater pressure to adapt as AI transforms the nature of work over the coming decade.

Thank you for subscribing to the Future Download! 

If you need help with your newsletter, email our Arizona-based support team at [email protected]

👩🏽‍⚖️ Legal Stuff
FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY; NOT ADVICE. Morning Download products and services are offered for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be construed as a securities-related offer or solicitation or be relied upon as personalized financial advice. We are not financial advisors and cannot give personalized advice.  There is a risk of loss in all trading, and you may lose some or all of your original investment. Results presented are not typical.  This message may contain paid advertisements, or affiliate links.  This content is for educational purposes only.

Please review the full risk disclaimer:  MorningDownload.com/terms-of-use

Just For You: Become part of the Morning Download’s SMS Community. Text “GO” to 844-991-2099 for immediate access to special offers and more!