Future Download
A.I., Crypto & Tech Stocks
Don’t Let Bitcoin Volatility Scare You: It’s Completely Normal
Bitcoin recently plunged as much as 36% from its all-time high of ~$126,000 hit in October 2025, touching below $81,000 before recovering to around $93,000–$94,000. To newer investors, that feels catastrophic. To anyone who’s been around crypto for more than one cycle, it barely registers as noise.
History shows these sharp drawdowns aren’t anomalies — they’re a feature of every major Bitcoin bull market.
1. These 30–40% Drops Happen in Every Cycle — Often Multiple Times
2017 bull run: Three separate corrections of ~29–40% before the final push to $20,000 in December.
2021 bull run: 31% drop in January, 26% in February, and a brutal 55% crash (May–July) after China’s mining ban — yet Bitcoin still hit $69,000 in November.
2024–2025 current cycle (so far): Already saw a 32.7% pullback (March–August 2024) and a 31.7% decline (January–April 2025) before the October top.
In short: 30–40% corrections are not bear-market signals; they’re mid-bull-market breathing room.
2. Deeper Corrections Have Almost Always Stayed “Bullish” in Structure
According to research, almost every major mid-cycle drawdown (except the 2021 China mining-ban crash) respected key long-term technical levels, such as holding above the 50-week moving average. The current cycle’s dips have done the same so far.
3. What Actually Caused the Latest Leg Down?
The trigger was straightforward but massive: On October 10, 2025, the largest liquidation cascade in crypto history wiped out $19.37 billion in leveraged long positions in a single 24-hour period. More than 1.6 million traders were forcibly closed out, creating a self-reinforcing sell-off.
Lucy Gazmararian, founder of Token Bay Capital, noted: “It was the biggest liquidation event ever recorded. The fallout from something that size takes weeks, if not months, to fully play out — especially when it coincides with peak ‘end-of-bull-market’ fear.”
4. We’re Still Nowhere Near “Crypto Winter” Territory
True bear markets (“crypto winters”) have historically seen Bitcoin trade 70–85% below its cycle peak for extended periods:
2018–2019: –84%
2022–2023: –77%
Today, even at the recent low, Bitcoin was only ~36% off its high — mild by historical standards.
Bottom Line
Sharp 30–40% pullbacks have preceded almost every final parabolic leg higher in Bitcoin’s history. While nothing is guaranteed and leverage has made moves more violent than ever, the price action so far remains entirely consistent with previous bull cycles.
Volatility isn’t a bug in Bitcoin — it’s the entry fee.
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