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JPMorgan’s Technical Outlook on AI Stocks: Opportunities and Risks in a Shifting Market

JPMorgan’s latest technical analysis, led by head of technical strategy Jason Hunter, provides a detailed look at the performance and potential trajectories of major AI-related stocks as the market navigates a seasonally weak period for U.S. equities.

With technology and growth stocks facing potential headwinds, understanding the technical setups of key players is critical for investors.

Below is a breakdown of JPMorgan’s insights into these stocks, highlighting key support and resistance levels, trend dynamics, and potential risks.

Nvidia: Facing Competitive Pressures

Nvidia, a leader in the AI chip market, saw its stock decline by approximately 3.5% on September 5, 2025, following Broadcom’s strong quarterly results, which underscored growing competition.

Despite a year-to-date gain of 23%, Nvidia has lost over 8% in the past month, weighing on broader market performance. Hunter notes that Nvidia is struggling to break above the $171.50–$174.15 resistance zone and has tentatively broken down from a short-term top pattern.

If the stock remains below this resistance, it could slide toward medium-term support at $147–$153, where Hunter anticipates significant buying interest.

Alphabet: A Bullish Standout

Alphabet, the parent company of Google and YouTube, has been a strong performer, gaining nearly 9% in the week of September 5, 2025, following a favorable court ruling allowing Google to retain its Chrome browser in an antitrust case. With a year-to-date increase of 23%, Alphabet exhibits what Hunter calls the “strongest bull trend dynamics” among the stocks analyzed. The stock remains robust above the $204–$212 support zone, which includes the early-2025 peak and recent trend lines. Hunter suggests managing long positions with a trailing stop below this support, as a break could shift focus to early-summer breakout levels near $180.

Meta Platforms: Signs of Slowing Momentum

Meta Platforms, the parent of Instagram, is showing signs of trend deceleration. Despite a 28% year-to-date gain, the stock has repeatedly stalled near the September 2024 internal trend line at $812.24. It maintains a positive bias above the $675.37–$705 support zone, but a break below could signal a bearish medium-term reversal, potentially pushing the stock toward the $592–$601 support zone. On the upside, resistance looms at $909.82. Investors should monitor these levels closely as Meta navigates potential market turbulence.

Oracle: Short-Term Weakness

Oracle has outperformed many tech peers with a 37% year-to-date gain but has faced a 10% pullback over the past month. Hunter highlights significant short-term chart damage, with Oracle breaking below $243 tactical support and the $229 July–August top pattern neckline. This setup suggests a further retracement of the spring-summer rally, with support layers to watch in the coming weeks. Oracle’s trajectory will depend on its ability to stabilize and regain momentum.

Microsoft: Seeking Support

Microsoft, up 18% year-to-date, has faced challenges, declining nearly 7% over the past month amid concerns about Azure growth and sideways market action. Hunter notes that Microsoft needs to clear the $518–$520 resistance to regain bullish traction. Without signs of lower-frequency trend exhaustion, the stock may find support near $475 (the April 38.2% retracement) or $468 (the July 2024 peak) if the pullback continues. The chart below tracks Microsoft’s performance over the past year.

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Amazon: Consolidation or Decline?

Amazon’s price action is ambiguous, with JPMorgan unsure whether it represents consolidation or a potential double-top pattern. The stock, up approximately 8% year-to-date, lags behind its “Magnificent 7” peers. Hunter advises caution due to September–October seasonality, recommending a trailing stop below the $213–$215 support zone. A break below could lead to a decline toward $190–$193, while resistance lies at $252–$256. Amazon’s performance will be a key indicator of broader tech sector trends.

Market Context and Investor Takeaways

The transition to early fall is historically challenging for equities, particularly for technology and growth stocks. With AI leaders like Nvidia and Microsoft influencing broader market dynamics, investors should closely monitor the technical levels outlined by JPMorgan. Alphabet stands out as a resilient performer, while Nvidia and Oracle face near-term challenges. Meta and Amazon require careful risk management due to mixed signals. These insights provide a roadmap for navigating the evolving AI stock landscape.

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