Future Download

A.I., Crypto & Tech Stocks

OpenAI's Unprecedented Dominance in the AI Revolution

OpenAI has emerged as a transformative force in the artificial intelligence landscape, redefining the tech industry with a scale and speed unmatched by any company in Silicon Valley’s history.

Unlike the tech giants of previous eras—such as Amazon in e-commerce, Google in search, or Apple in mobile—OpenAI operates as a privately held entity, shrouding its financials in secrecy while demonstrating an unparalleled ability to deploy vast capital.

This unique position allows it to invest aggressively across the AI stack, from infrastructure development to consumer applications, coding tools, and even experimental hardware, creating both opportunities and challenges for the broader tech ecosystem.

The company’s flagship product, ChatGPT, has reached an astonishing 800 million weekly users, cementing its role as a cultural and technological phenomenon. Meanwhile, OpenAI has forged massive partnerships with industry leaders like Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle, and AMD to build out the infrastructure needed to power its ambitious AI vision.

These deals, endorsed by the White House, underscore OpenAI’s central role in the generative AI era. Its recent $500 billion valuation reflects its meteoric rise from a startup led by former Y Combinator head Sam Altman to a goliath spearheading a global data center buildout.

In just the past few months, OpenAI’s pace has accelerated. At its DevDay event in San Francisco on October 6, 2025, attended by roughly 1,500 developers, CEO Sam Altman unveiled Codex, a software engineering agent now generally available, and announced that Sora 2, an AI video app that garnered 1 million downloads in under five days, is accessible via API for developers to test.

Additionally, OpenAI made headlines with a $6.4 billion talent acquisition, bringing on legendary iPhone designer Jony Ive to explore AI hardware that aims to “make us happy and fulfilled and more peaceful.” While Ive’s project remains vague, it signals OpenAI’s intent to push boundaries beyond software into physical devices.

This aggressive expansion has left entrepreneurs and investors grappling with a rapidly shifting landscape.

Nina Achadjian, a partner at Index Ventures, recently led a $25 million investment in Quilter, a company founded by former SpaceX engineer Sergiy Nesterenko that uses AI to develop software for printed circuit boards (PCBs).

Achadjian notes that Quilter operates in a niche market—PCBs are critical components in virtually all electronics, from light bulbs to car tires—where established players like Cadence Design and Synopsys dominate, making it less likely for OpenAI to compete directly. However, she acknowledges the unpredictability of OpenAI’s moves, describing the current AI cycle as “opaque” compared to past tech booms.

The speed of disruption in AI is unprecedented, according to Ethan Kurzweil, managing partner at Chemistry, who highlights the “gold rush mentality” driving startup creation.

AI startups are achieving historic valuations at a breakneck pace, with venture capital investments reaching $83.9 billion in the first half of 2025, fueled by billion-dollar deals. This figure suggests 2025 could surpass the 2021 peak of $96.1 billion in growth-stage investments.

Kurzweil, who hosted OpenAI’s operating chief Brad Lightcap at a recent event, notes that there are no “technical moats” in AI, meaning companies must rely on momentum to stay competitive. OpenAI’s ability to secure high-profile deals and rapidly deploy new features gives it a significant edge.

Despite OpenAI’s dominance, opportunities remain for startups in specialized markets.

In healthcare, companies like Heidi Health and DUOS have secured significant funding, while EvenUp and Spellbook are targeting the legal sector. These industries, often heavily regulated, require tailored solutions that general-purpose AI services may not address.

Exa Labs, a search-focused AI startup that raised $85 million at a $700 million valuation, views OpenAI as both a competitor and an enabler. Co-founder Jeff Wang argues that OpenAI’s tools enhance the broader ecosystem, enabling companies like his to serve hobbyists and businesses with specific, high-demand needs. He emphasizes that the AI market is vast enough to support multiple players, stating, “The pie is really big, and OpenAI is just one company.”

OpenAI’s ability to burn through cash without public market scrutiny—unlike its publicly traded predecessors—further fuels its aggressive vertical integration. This dynamic, combined with the absence of financial transparency, creates an environment of exuberance in capital raising and spending.

As Achadjian points out, the lack of a “reckoning” for private companies like OpenAI and its rival Anthropic, which recently raised $13 billion at a $183 billion valuation, amplifies this trend. OpenAI’s recent moves, including an AI app marketplace that competes with Big Tech’s turf, signal its intent to dominate not just AI but the broader tech landscape.

While OpenAI’s dominance poses challenges for startups, it also drives innovation by pushing the boundaries of what AI can achieve. Its partnerships, product rollouts, and willingness to take risks—such as the Sora app’s bold approach to content, which Altman jokingly hopes won’t attract lawsuits from companies like Nintendo—position it as the defining force of the AI era.

For entrepreneurs, the question is no longer just about finding a market but navigating a world where OpenAI’s shadow looms large, creating both risks and unprecedented opportunities.

How investors can invest in OpenAI

Since OpenAI is not a publicly traded company, you cannot directly invest in it. Retail investors can't buy shares directly, but here are the main options:

Indirect Exposure via Public Partners

Invest in publicly traded companies with major stakes or partnerships in OpenAI:

• Microsoft (MSFT): Largest investor with ~$14B committed and 49% ownership; integrates OpenAI tech into Azure, Office, and Bing.

• NVIDIA (NVDA): Supplies GPUs for OpenAI's infrastructure; committed up to $100B in investments and capacity.

Secondary Market for Accredited Investors

If you're an accredited investor (net worth >$1M excluding home or income >$200K/year), trade pre-IPO shares on platforms:

• Forge Global: Current share price ~$723; facilitates buys/sells.

• EquityZen or Hiive: Access listings and negotiate trades with no buying fees.

• Nasdaq Private Market: For institutional-level liquidity.

Venture Funds and ETFs

• Invest in AI-focused funds like ARK Venture Fund or those holding OpenAI backers (e.g., Thrive Capital, a16z).

• Broad AI ETFs (e.g., BOTZ or AIQ) for sector exposure, though not OpenAI-specific.

👩🏽‍⚖️ Legal Stuff
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice. Always do your own research and think for yourself.