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Rising Debt Risks Fueling the AI Data Center Boom: Five Key Hotspots
The explosive growth in artificial intelligence is pushing tech giants to rapidly expand data center infrastructure, increasingly funded through surging debt issuance.
According to UBS, AI-related data center and project financing has skyrocketed to $125 billion this year, up from just $15 billion in 2024. While this fuels innovation, experts including the Bank of England warn of potential financial stability risks if AI valuations falter or demand falls short.
Big Tech companies, traditionally reliant on strong cash flows, are now turning to public and private debt markets to finance massive capital expenditures. Analysts highlight opportunities in this shifting landscape but emphasize caution, as much of the investment remains unproven in terms of timely delivery and sustained demand.
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Here are the five major debt hotspots emerging in the AI infrastructure race:
Oracle's Escalating Default Concerns: Oracle's aggressive AI spending and disappointing forecasts triggered a sharp stock decline, amplifying worries about its debt load. Credit default swaps (CDS) — insurance against default — have spiked to five-year highs, underscoring investor unease despite major contracts like its $300 billion OpenAI deal.
Boom in Investment-Grade Borrowing: Tech megadeals dominate the investment-grade (IG) market, with Oracle issuing $18 billion and Meta $30 billion recently. AI-linked firms now represent 14% of JP Morgan's IG index, overtaking U.S. banks, though they remain a fraction of projected 2025 issuance.
Record High-Yield (Junk) Bond Issuance: Lower-rated tech companies are tapping the high-yield market at unprecedented levels for AI projects. However, some portfolio managers are steering clear, viewing these bonds as requiring equity-like compensation due to uncertainties in data center profitability.
Private Credit's Expanding Role: Non-bank lenders are stepping in aggressively, with AI private credit loans nearly doubling recently. Morgan Stanley projects private markets could finance over half of the estimated $1.5 trillion needed for global data center expansion through 2028.
Growth in Asset-Backed Securities (ABS): Securitized products bundling data center rents from Big Tech tenants are gaining traction. The digital infrastructure segment has grown ninefold in under five years to $82 billion, with expectations of $50-60 billion more supply in 2026 — though post-2008 caution lingers.
As debt becomes a cornerstone of AI advancement, market watchers stress the need for proven returns to sustain investor confidence amid this rapid transformation.
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